Southern Oregon Real Estate News

Jan. 20, 2020

Make the Dream of Homeownership a Reality in 2020

 

Make the Dream of Homeownership a Reality in 2020 | MyKCM

In 1963, Martin Luther King, Jr. led and inspired a powerful movement with his famous “I Have a Dream” speech. Through his passion and determination, he sparked interest, ambition, and courage in his audience. Today, reflecting on his message encourages many of us to think about our own dreams, goals, beliefs, and aspirations. For many Americans, one of those common goals is owning a home: a piece of land, a roof over our heads, and a place where our families can grow and flourish.

If you’re dreaming of buying a home this year, the best way to start the process is to connect with a Real Estate professional to understand what goes into buying a home. Once you have that covered, then you can answer the questions below to make the best decision for you and your family.

1. How Can I Better Understand the Process, and How Much Can I Afford?

The process of buying a home is not one to enter into lightly. You need to decide on key things like how long you plan on living in an area, school districts you prefer, what kind of commute works for you, and how much you can afford to spend.

Keep in mind, before you start the process to purchase a home, you’ll also need to apply for a mortgage. Lenders will evaluate several factors connected to your financial track record, one of which is your credit history. They’ll want to see how well you’ve been able to minimize past debts, so make sure you’ve been paying your student loans, credit cards, and car loans on time. Most agents have loan officers they trust that they can refer you to.

According to ConsumerReports.org,

Financial planners recommend limiting the amount you spend on housing to 25 percent of your monthly budget.”

2. How Much Do I Need for a Down Payment?

In addition to knowing how much you can afford on a monthly mortgage payment, understanding how much you’ll need for a down payment is another critical step. Thankfully, there are many different options and resources in the market to potentially reduce the amount you may think you need to put down up front.

If you’re concerned about saving for a down payment, start small and be consistent. A little bit each month goes a long way. Jumpstart your savings by automatically adding a portion of your monthly paycheck into a separate savings account or house fund. AmericaSaves.org says,

“Over time, these automatic deposits add up. For example, $50 a month accumulates to $600 a year and $3,000 after five years, plus interest that has compounded.”

Before you know it, you’ll have enough for a down payment if you’re disciplined and thoughtful about your process.

3. Saving Takes Time: Practice Living on a Budget

As tempting as it is to settle in each morning with a fancy cup of coffee from your favorite local shop, putting that daily spend toward your down payment will help accelerate your path to homeownership. It’s the little things that count, so start trying to live on a slightly tighter budget if you aren’t doing so already. A budget will allow you to save more for your down payment and help you pay down other debts to improve your credit score. A survey of Millennial spending shows,

“70 percent of would-be first-time homebuyers will cut spending on spa days, shopping and going to the movies in exchange for purchasing a home within the next year.”

While you don’t need to cut all of the fun out of your current lifestyle, making smarter choices and limiting your spending in areas where you can slim down will make a big difference.

Bottom Line

If homeownership is on your dream list this year, take a good look at what you can prioritize to help you get there. Let’s get together today to discuss the best steps you can take to start the process.

Posted in Home Ownership
Jan. 13, 2020

Southern Oregon Market Stats Dec. 2019

Oct. 1 2019 to Dec. 31 2019

By Jake Rockwell

Southern Oregon real estate market showed some strong signs with an increase in number of homes sold as well as average sales price being up. We continue to see double digit increases median sales prices in Ashland, West Medford & Central Point.

Some Key Take-Aways:

  • The 4th quarter, year end market statistics, and real value reports are now available for Jackson and Josephine County. 
  • Both counties posted positive gains in median home value appreciation in 2019 with Jackson County up 4.5%, and Josephine County up 6.8% over 2018. Appreciation was found in new home sales for both counties as well.  In contrast, distressed sales amounted to less than 2% of overall home sales for the year.
  • The 4th quarter shows a strong finish to 2019 for both counties.  The one year change over 4th quarter 2018 for Jackson County was 7.1%, and 8.7% for Josephine County.  Meanwhile inventory for both counties is down significantly, with Jackson County down 21.4% and Josephine County down 27.5%.
  • In short, prices are up, inventory is down, and we are entering 2020 with strong sustainable momentum.  Interest rates and financing terms are favorable at the moment too, creating affordable housing scenarios for many looking to purchase. 

Links to Stats:

 

Create a custom market report catered to your neighborhood or any specific area and criteria.

Want an instant market valuation for you property?

Jan. 9, 2020

Not enough homes on the Market!!

There’s a Long Line of Buyers Waiting for Your House

There’s a Long Line of Buyers Waiting for Your House | MyKCM

If you’re following what’s happening in the housing market right now, you know that many people believe the winter months aren’t a good time to sell a home. As realtor.com Senior Economist George Ratiu recently noted,

“Sellers tend to be more reluctant to list during the colder time of year when the market typically makes a seasonal slowdown.”

However, a recent report by ShowingTime reveals how this year is different. Buyer activity is way up compared to the same time last year. The report explains,

“The nation’s 12.6% growth in home showings compared to 2018 was the most significant jump in buyer traffic during the current four-month streak of year-over-year increases. The West Region saw the greatest growth in activity, with a 23.1% jump – the region’s greatest in the history of the Showing Index.”

The increase has spread across all four regions of the country, as the graph below shows:There’s a Long Line of Buyers Waiting for Your House | MyKCM

Bottom Line

Waiting for the “spring buyers’ market” may be a mistake this year. It seems the purchasers are already out and looking to buy.

Posted in Home Ownership
Dec. 23, 2019

Here's what Realtor.com had to say about 2020

2020 housing market predictions - realtor.com

 

2020 Housing Market Predictions – Realtor.com

National Housing Forecast 2020: Housing markets search for new balance

– Home price growth will flatten, with a forecasted increase of 0.8 percent
– Inventory will remain constrained, especially at the entry-level price segment
– Mortgage rates are likely to bump up to 3.88 percent by the end of the year
– Tight inventory and rising mortgage rates will lead to dropping sales
– Buyers will continue to move to affordability, benefiting mid-sized markets


 

Realtor.com Forecast for Key Housing Indicators

Housing Indicator Realtor.com 2020 Forecast      
Mortgage Rates Average 3.85% throughout the year, 3.88% by end of year      
Existing Home Median Sales Price Appreciation Up 0.8%      
Existing Home Sales Down 1.8%      
Single-Family Home Housing Starts Up 6%      
Homeownership Rate 64.6%      

Summary - 2020 housing market predictions - Realtor.com

Download full resolution images: [Summary] [Full Infographic (15mb)]

Economic Perspectives

Gross Domestic Product

Economic activity in the United States started 2019 on an upbeat note, fueled by consumer optimism and business confidence. Riding the corporate tax restructuring of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, companies boosted investments and, coupled with solid consumer spending, led to a 4.1 percent annualized gain in gross domestic product (GDP) during the first quarter of the year, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In addition, exports outpaced imports during the period, leading to expectations of increased trade windfalls.

However, as the year wore on, the trade rifts between the US and its trading partners deepened, leading to an escalation in tariffs and overall uncertainty. While consumer optimism remained unabated—leading to a 4.6 percent annualized gain in consumer spending—business confidence waned and resulted in a 1.0 percent drop in investment in the second quarter. Even as government spending picked up the pace, the cumulative effect was a mild 2.0 percent GDP gain in the second quarter.

The loss of momentum was reflected in the third quarter’s GDP figure, which advanced at an initial estimate of 1.9 percent annual rate. The Bureau of Economic Analysis subsequently revised third quarter GDP to 2.1 percent, showing stronger business investment. The Federal Reserve, concerned about a deteriorating global economic outlook, decided to boost liquidity in the financial system, in an effort to prevent an economic slide.

Monetary Policy

The Federal Reserve moved into 2019 signaling through its forward guidance that, as the economy continued on an expansionary track, it would maintain a policy focused on monetary tightening. Markets expected at least two additional short-term interest rate increases at the outset of the year.

Towards the midpoint of the year, however, the central bank’s policy shifted, in response to global changes. While the US economy continued showing signs of growth, major economies around the world slowed. In response to the slowdown, central banks around the world engaged in accommodative monetary responses, resorting to cutting rates and purchasing assets, in an effort to boost output. Along with the Bank of Japan, several central banks in Europe took interest rates into negative territory, attempting to spur investment and liquidity. In response, world currencies dropped against the US dollar, adding pressure on US exporters and sectors sensitive to currency risks.

The Federal Reserve decided to change tack in light of these shifts, and responded by cutting rates 3 times, at the Federal Open Market Committee’s meetings in July, September, and October. The central bank also expressed that it would move from a longer term outlook to a shorter term horizon, assessing incoming economic data through the year to guide its policy actions. While the bank’s two main objectives—stable employment and low inflation—remained on track in 2019, the rate cuts seemed aimed at walking a tightrope between maintaining US economic momentum amid a global economic moderation and placating investors’ expectations for growth.

Employment

Mirroring the shift in business confidence, the pace of employment growth moderated in the first three quarters of 2019. While companies continued adding positions to their payrolls, the number of net new jobs totaled 1.45 million during the January to September timeframe, 27 percent lower than the same period in 2018, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The professional and business services sector—the main driver of employment growth during the past decade—took a back seat to the healthcare and social assistance sector, accounting for 311,000 net new jobs, a 29 percent decline from 2018. With over 410,000 new jobs added to payrolls, the healthcare sector led the pack, posting a 19 percent gain compared with the same period in 2018. Stemming from solid growth in business travel, the lodging and food services sector provided the third largest number of net new jobs in the first nine months of 2019, with 136,000 employees added to payrolls.

As the corporate outlook dimmed partway through the year, employment in manufacturing, trade, transportation and utilities slowed. In addition, despite strong demand for housing, construction companies hired 58 percent fewer employees in 2019 compared with the prior year. The slowdown in hiring was also evident in other sectors, such as mining and logging, financial activities, as well as arts, entertainment and recreation.

Government entities also reflected shifting priorities in 2019. After an extended period of flat hiring, the federal government added 45,000 new positions during the first nine months of the year. Local governments—enjoying rising property tax revenues—also went on a hiring spree, adding 91,000 new employees to payrolls, a 44 percent increase year-over-year. State governments pared back their hiring, adding a more moderate 20,000 new jobs.

The pace of employment, while slower than a year ago, pushed the unemployment rate to 3.6 percent in the third quarter of 2019, the same rate last experienced in the second half of 1969. The labor force participation rate reached 62.8 percent in the third quarter of the year, slightly below the average rate recorded over the past decade. While wages gained ground during 2019, at 3.0 percent during the first half of the year, when adjusted for inflation, they managed a more modest 1.2 percent year-over-year average gain.

Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence spent the better part of 2019 moving sideways, despite monthly fluctuations. In September, the Present Situation component of the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was unchanged compared with the same month in 2018. However, the Expectations component dropped 15 percent over the figure from the prior year, leading to an 8 percent decline in the overall index, and implying that consumers were expecting deteriorating conditions over the next few months.

2020 Economic Outlook

As economic momentum moderated through 2019 and global headwinds gather, GDP growth is projected to post a modest 1.7 percent advance in 2020. As the housing share of expenses continues rising, consumers—the largest contributor to output—will likely trim back on non-housing spending. A slowdown in consumer spending, coupled with rising global uncertainty and market volatility, can be expected to lead companies to contain costs and trim employment goals. An employment slowdown will move the unemployment rate from 3.6 percent at the start of 2020 to 3.9 percent by the end of the year—a jobless rate still below what would be expected in a healthy economy, but a shift in the wrong direction. In turn, consumer confidence will soften during the year, with the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index estimated to decline 21 percent.

Following the Federal Reserve’s monetary accommodation, inflation expectations remain modest and well-anchored, translating into a 2.0 percent year-over-year increase in 2020. While short term rates remain low, economic moderation is likely to impact bond markets, leading to mortgage rates moving mostly sideways in 2020. Rates for 30-year fixed mortgages are projected to average 3.85 percent during the next year.

Housing Trends in 2020

Inventory Outlook - 2020 housing market predictions - Realtor.com

Download full resolution images: [Inventory Outlook] [Full Infographic (15mb)]

1) Supply

Housing supply was a tale of two halves in 2019. In the first six months, we saw the effect of low affordability, which translated into an inventory build-up around the country. The number of homes available for sale rose rapidly, at nearly 7 percent on a yearly basis, the fastest pace of growth since 2014. Before spring arrived we had already seen the first material move in favor of buyers. Inventory was on an expansionary path leading to the summer, as prices further overheated and frustrated buyers reached a point of exhaustion. However, the landscape shifted quickly. As mortgage rates sank in March, the low rate environment gave the housing market a second wind. Thousands of buyers that were priced out by sky-high prices found a way to enter the market by leaning on financing, and those that were on the edge of qualifying were suddenly and automatically back in. At the start of this year, 2-out-of-3 of markets were seeing inventory growth. As we wrap the year, only 1-in-10 are seeing growth, placing housing into acute shortage mode.

The market is still years away from reaching an adequate supply of homes to meet today’s demand from buyers. Despite improvements to new construction and short waves of sellers, next year will once again fail to bring a solution to the inventory shortage. In 2020, we expect inventory to struggle to grow and could instead reach a historic low level. The yearly declines are likely to be moderate and range between 1-to-5 percent for most of the year. A steady flow of demand, and robust-yet-declining seller sentiment will combine to ensure there is no surplus adequately-priced inventory.

2) Demand

A low rate environment, rising rents, and the ever expanding millennial population broadened the potential homebuyer pool and maintained a strong demand foundation in 2019. Buyer sentiment peaked in the summer and powered sales growth in the fall. However, it lost momentum later in the year, as conditions of low affordability and economic uncertainty persisted.

Overall buyer demand will remain very robust, particularly at the entry level, in 2020. The largest population cohort in the country (those born in 1990) will turn 30 in 2020, accounting for 4.8 million millennials hitting peak home buying age. As a group, Millennials (those born 1981-1997) will take more than half of all mortgages next year. For the first time ever, Millennials’ share of mortgage originations will surpass 50 percent in the spring, outnumbering Gen X and Baby Boomers combined. The last generation to take more than half of all purchase originations was Gen X in 2013, just six years ago. Accordingly, other generations’ footprint will continue to contract, with Gen X and Baby Boomers taking 32 and 17 percent of mortgage originations respectively.

3) Home sales

Sales of existing homes declined in 2018 and through the first half of 2019, as tightening inventory squeezed first-time buyers. While sales experienced a slight rebound in the third quarter of this year, elevated by declining mortgage rates, the annual pace is likely to be flat at best. Demand for homes remains solid, with younger buyers continuing to vote with their dollars. However, as consumers indicated that they expect a moderation in economic activity in 2020, the housing market is likely to reflect the economic headwinds. Sales of existing homes are expected to decline 1.8 percent in 2020, as the continuing supply shortage and moderating price growth will hamper buyers and tamp down sellers’ expectations.

The decline in sales is projected to be accompanied by a flattening in price growth. With the supply of available homes continuing to balance on a tightrope, and the entry-level demand expected to remain strong, prices are estimated to tick up 0.8 percent in 2020.

4) Move to affordability

A dominant trait of this real estate cycle has been the renaissance of the urban downtowns. As younger generations returned to downtown cores, employers and developers responded by building offices, retail and housing in high-density environments. However, as the costs of development and construction rose, so did housing prices, especially given the propensity for builders to bring mostly high-end, luxury products to market. Over the past decade, demand for downtown living trended on an upward curve, driven by a desire for proximity, and lifestyle amenities, especially on the part of Millennials.

However, as Millennials matured and started families, their priorities shifted. With the oldest members of the generational cohort reaching 38 years in 2019, Millennials broadened their housing horizons beyond the urban core. As housing prices outpaced incomes by a wide margin, home buyers made a noticeable move toward affordability during the year. Large, expensive coastal markets—New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco—began experiencing net migration outflows, as buyers flocked to mid-sized cities, in search of quality of life and amenities at a more affordable price point.

The move to affordability trend will continue in 2020, fueled by the twin forces of Baby Boomers retiring and seeking sunnier weather, lower taxes and lower cost of living, and Millennials searching for family-friendly lifestyles and affordable housing. Home buyers are increasingly looking not only at suburban environments near large metropolitan areas, but also considering options across state lines. Cities in Arizona, Nevada and Texas will continue to benefit from shoppers looking for more affordable alternatives to California. Meanwhile, shoppers from expensive Northeast markets will find the warmer options in the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida attractive.

Millennial Mythbusters - 2020 housing market predictions - Realtor.com

Download full resolution images: [Millennial Mythbusters] [Full Infographic (15mb)]

What will 2020 be like for buyers?

Buying a home in 2020 will offer opportunities for some buyers, as the supply of new homes relieves some of the inventory pressures, and prices moderate. While the inventory of new homes in 2019 remained focused on the high-end, as the luxury market cools, builders signaled their intent to increase offerings in the mid-price segment, a much-needed shift in market dynamics. First-time buyers will continue to struggle with affordability, even with mortgage rates in an approachable range, as entry-level inventory is expected to remain constrained. The broad price moderation will continue to offer opportunities in mid-sized markets in the Midwest and South.

What will 2020 be like for sellers?

Sellers in 2020 will contend with flattening price growth and slowing activity, requiring more patience and a thoughtful approach to pricing. Sellers of homes priced for entry-level buyers can expect the market to remain competitive and prices to stay firm. At the upper end of the price range, however, properties will take longer to sell, and incentives will be needed to close deals. As the market moves toward a more balanced scenario, sellers who adjust to local market conditions can expect to benefit from continuing demand.

Implications for Buyers and Sellers - 2020 housing market predictions - Realtor.com

Download full resolution images: [Implications for Buyers and Sellers] [Full Infographic (15mb)]

Election will be 2020 wildcard

Political elections can have an impact on the economy and housing markets. While the outcome of elections is not directly tied to the performance of the markets, expectations linked to a party’s or an administration’s likely legislative or regulatory actions can sway confidence and decisions. When either party gains control of the legislative and executive branches, there’s a higher likelihood of seeing shifts in the rule-making process and the regulatory environment.

Looking at housing trends over the past three decades, the pace of sales, price and inventory are intertwined with economic performance—employment, wages, and interest rates. The outcome of elections does not weigh directly on trends in housing. However, business optimism and investments, along with consumer optimism and spending do influence economic output, and can also influence housing activity.

The 2020 elections will be closely watched by consumers and businesses for indications of potential changes. Along with the presidential election, there will be candidates running for 35 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate, along with 435 seats in the House of Representatives.


Housing Market Predictions 2020 – City Breakdown

 

Housing Market Sales Growth Price Growth          
United States -1.8% 0.8%          
Akron, Ohio 2.6% 0.0%          
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, N.Y. -0.5% 2.3%          
Albuquerque, N.M. -0.2% 0.9%          
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, Pa.-N.J. 2.3% 0.4%          
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga. -3.5% 4.5%          
Augusta-Richmond County, Ga.-S.C. -4.2% 2.1%          
Austin-Round Rock, Texas -2.8% -0.2%          
Bakersfield, Calif. -0.3% -1.4%          
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md. -0.1% -0.3%          
Baton Rouge, La. -1.6% 0.4%          
Birmingham-Hoover, Ala. -1.3% -1.1%          
Boise City, Idaho 0.3% 8.1%          
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H. -2.1% 1.2%          
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Conn. -4.1% 4.8%          
Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, N.Y. 2.6% -2.2%          
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla. 0.0% 2.6%          
Charleston-North Charleston, S.C. 1.2% 1.9%          
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C. 0.4% 0.1%          
Chattanooga, Tenn.-Ga. 2.0% 3.6%          
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis. -0.9% -0.3%          
Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind. 1.3% 0.3%          
Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio 2.6% 0.4%          
Colorado Springs, Colo. -1.4% 6.3%          
Columbia, S.C. 5.5% -0.2%          
Columbus, Ohio -2.0% 1.7%          
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas -4.9% -0.5%          
Dayton, Ohio 0.6% -0.2%          
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla. 1.1% 0.2%          
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo. -2.3% 1.7%          
Des Moines-West Des Moines, Iowa -10.5% 0.4%          
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich -4.1% -1.0%          
Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C. -0.9% 1.2%          
El Paso, Texas 0.9% 0.6%          
Fresno, Calif. -0.7% -0.9%          
Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich -4.2% 0.2%          
Greensboro-High Point, N.C. 0.8% -2.9%          
Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, S.C. -2.5% 0.1%          
Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pa. 0.3% 0.5%          
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn. -3.0% 2.7%          
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas 0.3% 0.2%          
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind. 0.0% 1.1%          
Jackson, Miss. -2.1% -0.1%          
Jacksonville, Fla. -2.3% 0.7%          
Kansas City, Mo.-Kan. 3.4% -4.0%          
Knoxville, Tenn. 1.6% 1.3%          
Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla. -0.9% 0.2%          
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev. -9.5% -1.1%          
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Ark. -2.6% 1.0%          
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif. -6.0% 0.7%          
Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind. -0.8% 0.9%          
Madison, Wis. -1.3% 1.9%          
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas 4.4% 4.0%          
Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark. 0.1% 3.0%          
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla. -1.1% -1.2%          
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis. -3.6% 2.1%          
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis. -2.4% 2.8%          
Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, Tenn. -1.2% 0.4%          
New Haven-Milford, Conn. 5.0% -2.4%          
New Orleans-Metairie, La. -2.3% -0.7%          
New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa. -4.1% 0.7%          
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla. 1.6% 0.5%          
Oklahoma City, Okla. -1.4% -0.8%          
Omaha-Council Bluffs, Neb.-Iowa -3.0% 0.7%          
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla. 0.9% 1.8%          
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif. -6.0% 0.1%          
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla. -9.8% 0.2%          
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md. -3.9% 0.8%          
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz. -0.4% 3.4%          
Pittsburgh, Pa. -0.6% 1.3%          
Portland-South Portland, Maine 1.4% 1.2%          
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore.-Wash. -3.0% 0.5%          
Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass. -2.1% 0.2%          
Raleigh, N.C. 0.2% 2.2%          
Richmond, Va. -7.7% 0.6%          
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. -7.6% 1.5%          
Rochester, N.Y. 4.7% 0.4%          
Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, Calif. -6.1% 0.8%          
Salt Lake City, Utah -0.5% 3.5%          
San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas -1.9% 0.8%          
San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif. -3.2% 0.2%          
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif. -4.5% -0.4%          
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif. -3.0% 2.1%          
Scranton–Wilkes-Barre–Hazleton, Pa. -2.7% -3.2%          
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash. -0.8% 3.1%          
Spokane-Spokane Valley, Wash. 1.5% 1.3%          
Springfield, Mass. 0.3% 1.1%          
St. Louis, Mo.-Ill. -1.2% -0.6%          
Stockton-Lodi, Calif. 0.7% -0.5%          
Syracuse, N.Y. -1.4% 0.6%          
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla. 0.6% 1.6%          
Toledo, Ohio 0.5% -0.1%          
Tucson, Ariz. 3.4% 3.3%          
Tulsa, Okla. 1.0% -2.3%          
Urban Honolulu, Hawaii 3.6% -0.9%          
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C. -3.8% 1.1%          
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-Va.-Md.-W. Va. -1.5% 2.6%          
Wichita, Kan. -0.5% 1.1%          
Winston-Salem, N.C. 3.6% 0.5%          
Worcester, Mass.-Conn. -0.4% -0.6%          
Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio-Pa. -0.4% 2.1%
Posted in Home Ownership
Dec. 7, 2019

Jackson County Market Stats

Southern Oregon Market Stats

Sept. 1,2019 to Nov. 30 2019

By Jake Rockwell

Southern Oreogn real estate market showed some strong signs with an increase in number of homes sold as well as average sales price being up.  There is a struggle with inventory however with the number of available properties available considerably down compared to last year during the same period.  We continue to see double digit increases median sales prices in Ashland, West Medford & Central Point.

Key Takeaways:

  • Jackson county average sales price was up 5.5% with Josephine County 8.5%.
  • Homes available on 11/30/19 in Jackson Count was down18.3% and 21% in Josephine County.
  • Homes sat a little longer on the market with average days on market up close to 20%.

Links to Stats:

 

Create a custom market report catered to your neighborhood or any specific area and criteria.

Want an instant market valuation for you property?

Dec. 6, 2019

What is the Best Investment for Americans?

What is the Best Investment for Americans?

What is the Best Investment for Americans? | MyKCM

Some are reporting that there is trepidation regarding the real estate market in the United States. Apparently, the American people are quite comfortable.

Porch.com, a major network helping homeowners with their renovation projects, recently conducted a survey which asked Americans:

“What do you believe is the safest investment over the next 10 years?”

U.S. housing came in at number one, beating out other investments such as gold, stocks, bonds, and savings.

Here is a graph showing the top five investments Americans selected:What is the Best Investment for Americans? | MyKCMThe findings of the Porch.com survey also coincide with two previous surveys done earlier this year:

  1. The Federal Reserve Bank’s 2019 Consumer Expectations Housing Survey reported that 65% of Americans believe homeownership is a good financial investment, and that the percentage has increased in each of the last four years.
  2. The Gallup survey showed that Americans have picked real estate as the “best” investment for six straight years.

Bottom Line

Based on all three surveys done this year, we can see that Americans still believe in homeownership as a great investment, and that feeling continues to grow.

Posted in Home Ownership
Oct. 14, 2019

Now Is a Great Time to Sell

Existing-Home Sales Report Indicates Now Is a Great Time to Sell

Existing-Home Sales Report Indicates Now Is a Great Time to Sell | MyKCM

The best time to sell anything is when demand for that item is high and the supply of that item is limited. The latest Existing-Home Sales Report released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), reveals that demand for housing continues to be strong, but the supply is struggling to keep pace. With this trend likely continuing throughout 2020, now is a great time to sell your house.

THE EXISTING-HOME SALES REPORT

The most important data revealed in this report was not actually sales. In reality, it was the inventory of homes for sale (supply). The report explained:

  • Total housing inventory at the end of August decreased 2.6% to 1.86 million homes available for sale.
  • Unsold inventory is lower than the 4.3-month figure recorded in August 2018.
  • This represents a 1-month supply at the current sales pace.

According to Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR,

“Sales are up, but inventory numbers remain low and are thereby pushing up
home prices.”

In real estate, there is a simple guideline that often applies here. Essentially, when there is less than a 6-month supply of inventory available, we are in a seller’s market and we will see greater appreciation. Between a 6 to 7-month supply is a neutral market, where prices will increase at the rate of inflation. More than a 7-month supply means we are in a buyer’s market and can expect depreciation in home values (see below):Existing-Home Sales Report Indicates Now Is a Great Time to Sell | MyKCMAs we mentioned before, there is currently a 4.1-month supply of homes on the market, and houses are going under contract fast. The Existing Home Sales Report also shows that 49% of properties were on the market for less than a month when they were sold. In August, properties sold nationally were typically on the market for 31 days. As Yun notes, this should continue,

“As expected, buyers are finding it hard to resist the current rates…The desire to take advantage of these promising conditions is leading more buyers to the market.” 

Takeaway: Inventory of homes for sale is still well below the 6-month supply needed for a normal market, and supply will fail to catch up with demand if a sizable supply does not enter the market.

Bottom Line

If you are going to sell, now may be the time to take advantage of the ready, willing, and able buyers who are out there searching for your house to become their dream home.

Posted in Home Ownership
Sept. 25, 2019

Great time to BUY

Are You Ready for the ‘Black Friday’ of Real Estate?

Are You Ready for the ‘Black Friday’ of Real Estate? | MyKCM

Every year, ‘Black Friday’ is a highly anticipated event for eager shoppers. Some people prepare for weeks, crafting and refining a strategic shopping agenda, determining exactly when to arrive at each store, and capturing a wish list of discounted must-have items to purchase. But what about buying a home? Is there a ‘Black Friday’ for the home-buying process? Believe it or not, there is.

According to a new study from realtor.comthe week of September 22 is the best time of year to buy a home, making it ‘Black Friday’ for homebuyers.

After evaluating housing data in 53 metros from 2016 to 2018, realtor.com determined that the first week of fall is when buyers “tend to find less competition, more inventory, and the biggest reductions on list price.

The report explains,

“During the first week of fall, buyers tend to face 26% less competition from other buyers, and they are likely to see 6.1% more homes available on the market compared to other weeks of the year...nearly 6% of homes on the market will also see price reductions, averaging 2.4% less than their peak.”

What’s so different about the first week of fall?

George Ratiu, Senior Economist with realtor.com says,

“As summer winds down and kids return to school, many families hit pause on their home search and wait until the next season to start again…as seasonal inventory builds up and restores itself to more buyer-friendly levels, fall buyers will be in a better position to take advantage of today’s low mortgage rates and increased purchasing power.”

Learn more about how prices, listings, and buyer competition stack up during the first week of fall in your metro area.

Bottom Line

If you want to take advantage of the ‘Black Friday’ of home buying, let’s get together to discuss the benefits of making your next move this fall.

Posted in Home Ownership
Aug. 15, 2019

Busting the Myth About a Housing Affordability Crisis

Busting the Myth About a Housing Affordability Crisis

Busting the Myth About a Housing Affordability Crisis | MyKCM

It seems you can’t find a headline with the term “housing affordability” without the word “crisis” attached to it. That’s because some only consider the fact that residential real estate prices have continued to appreciate. However, we must realize it’s not just the price of a home that matters, but the price relative to a purchaser’s buying power.

Homes, in most cases, are purchased with a mortgage. The current mortgage rate is a major component of the affordability equation. Mortgage rates have fallen by over a full percentage point since December 2018. Another major piece of the affordability equation is a buyer’s income. The median family income has risen by 3.5% over the last year.

Let’s look at three different reports issued recently that reveal how homes are very affordable in comparison to historic numbers, and how they have become even more affordable over the past several months.

1. National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) Housing Affordability Index:

Here is a graph showing the index going all the way back to 1990. The higher the column, the more affordable homes are:Busting the Myth About a Housing Affordability Crisis | MyKCMWe can see that homes are less affordable today (the green bar) than they were during the housing crash (the red bars). This was when distressed properties like foreclosures and short sales saturated the market and sold for massive discounts. However, homes are more affordable today than at any time from 1990 to 2008.

NAR’s report on the index also shows that the percentage of a family’s income needed for a mortgage payment (16.5%) is dramatically lower than last year and is well below the historic norm of 21.2%.Busting the Myth About a Housing Affordability Crisis | MyKCM

2. Black Knight’s Mortgage Monitor:

This report reveals that as a result of falling interest rates and slowing home price appreciation, affordability is the best it has been in 18 months. Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske explains:

“For much of the past year and a half, affordability pressures have put a damper on home price appreciation. Indeed, the rate of annual home price growth has declined for 15 consecutive months. More recently, declining 30-year fixed interest rates have helped to ease some of those pressures, improving the affordability outlook considerably…And despite the average home price rising by more than $12K since November, today’s lower fixed interest rates have worked out to a $108 lower monthly payment...Lower rates have also increased the buying power for prospective homebuyers looking to purchase the average-priced home by the equivalent of 15%.”

3. First American’s Real House Price Index:

While affordability has increased recently, Mark Fleming, First American’s Chief Economist explains:

“If the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage declines just a fraction more, consumer house-buying power would reach its highest level in almost 20 years.”

Fleming goes on to say that the gains in affordability are about mortgage rates and the increase in family incomes:

“Average nominal household incomes are nearly 57 percent higher today than in January 2000. Record income levels combined with mortgage rates near historic lows mean consumer house-buying power is more than 150 percent greater today than it was in January 2000.”

Bottom Line

If you’ve put off the purchase of a first home or a move-up home because of affordability concerns, you should take another look at your ability to purchase in today’s market. You may be pleasantly surprised!

Posted in Home Ownership
Aug. 1, 2019

Judging the Market

How to Judge the Impact of the Next Economic Slowdown on Housing

How to Judge the Impact of the Next Economic Slowdown on Housing | MyKCM

We’ve experienced economic growth for almost a decade, which is the longest recovery in the nation’s history. Experts know a recession can’t be too far off, but when will this economic slowdown actually occur?

Pulsenomics just released a special report revealing that nearly 6 out of 10 of the 90 economists, investment strategists, and market analysts surveyed believe the next recession will occur by the end of next year. Here’s the breakdown:

  • 9% believe a recession will occur this year
  • 50% believe it will occur in 2020
  • 35% believe it will occur in 2021
  • 6% believe it will occur after 2021

When asked what would trigger the next recession, the three most common responses by those surveyed were:

  1. Trade Policy
  2. Stock Market Correction
  3. Geopolitical Crisis

How might the recession impact real estate?

Challenges in the housing and mortgage markets were major triggers of the last recession. However, a housing slowdown ranked #9 on the list of potential triggers for the next recession, behind such possibilities as fiscal policy and political gridlock.

As far as the impact the recession may have on home values, the experts surveyed indicated home prices would continue to appreciate over the next few years. They called for a 4.1% appreciation rate this year, 2.8% in 2020, and 2.5% in 2021.

Bottom Line

On the same day, in the same survey, the same experts who forecasted a recession happening within the next 18 months also claimed housing will not be the trigger, and home values will still continue to appreciate.

Posted in Home Ownership