Southern Oregon Real Estate News

Oct. 11, 2021

Southern Oregon Market Stats Sept 2021

Southern Oregon Market Stats

July 1st, 2021- Sept 30th 2021


By Jake Rockwell

Comparatively, 2021 is showing great strides over 2020. Which is remarkable as 2020, despite COVID drawbacks made great numbers, yet, 2021 is already showing 21.9% increase in inventory for all of Jackson County. Even the median home price has sold for nearly $50,000 over last years number from $338,500 to $379,950. The trajectory is continuously going up which means if you're waiting to buy, you may end up waiting for no reason as prices continue to go up. Will the market crash, NO. Might it correct, YES, however you wont see prices falling considerably in our opinion. Home prices may stop increasing at such a rapid rate but will most likely be it. So we continue to say what we've said all year, BUY and SELL now. 

Key Take-Aways:

  • Total homes in residential inventory went from September 2021 at 452 to 551 in September 2021.
  • Total homes SOLD in this time went from 810 in 2020 to 820 in 2021.
  • 5 year change is an increase of 50.8%.


Links to Stats:


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Oct. 7, 2021

Home Price Appreciation Is Skyrocketing in 2021. What About 2022?

Home Price Appreciation Is Skyrocketing in 2021. What About 2022?

One of the major story lines over the last year is how well the residential real estate market performed. One key metric in the spotlight is home price appreciation. According to the latest indices, home prices are skyrocketing this year.

Here are the latest percentages showing the year-over-year increase in home price appreciation:

The dramatic increases are seen at every price point and in all regions of the country.

Increases Are Across Every Price Point

According to the latest Home Price Index from CoreLogic, each price range is seeing at least a 19% increase year-over-year:Home Price Appreciation Is Skyrocketing in 2021. What About 2022? | Keeping Current Matters

Increases Are Across Every Region in the Country

Every region in the country is experiencing at least a 14.9% increase in home price appreciation, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA):Home Price Appreciation Is Skyrocketing in 2021. What About 2022? | Keeping Current Matters

Increases Are Across Each of the Top 20 Metros in the Country

According to the U.S. National Home Price Index from S&P Case-Shiller, every major metro is seeing at least a 13.3% growth in prices (see graph below):Home Price Appreciation Is Skyrocketing in 2021. What About 2022? | Keeping Current Matters

What About Price Appreciation in 2022?

Prices are the result of the balance between supply and demand. The demand for single-family homes has been strong over the last 18 months. The supply of houses available for sale was near historic lows. However, there’s some good news on the supply side. reports:

“432,000 new listings hit the national housing market in August, an increase of 18,000 over last year.”

There will, however, still be a shortage of supply compared to demand in 2022. CoreLogic reveals:

“Given the widespread demand and considering the number of standalone homes built during the past decade, the single-family market is estimated to be undersupplied by 4.35 million units by 2022.”

Yet, most forecasts call for home price appreciation to moderate in 2022. The Home Price Expectation Survey, a survey of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts, calls for a 5.12% appreciation level next year. Here are the 2022 home appreciation forecasts from the four other major entities:

  1. The National Association of Realtors (NAR): 4.4%
  2. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): 8.4%
  3. Fannie Mae: 5.1%
  4. Freddie Mac: 5.3%

Price appreciation is expected to slow in 2022 when compared to the record highs of 2021. However, it is still expected to be greater than the annual average of 4.1% over the last 25 years.

Bottom Line

If you owned a home over the past year, you’ve seen your household wealth grow substantially, and you’ll see another nice boost in 2022. If you’re thinking of buying, consider buying now as prices are forecast to continue increasing through at least next year

Posted in Home Ownership
Oct. 5, 2021

The Main Key To Understanding the Rise in Mortgage Rates


The Main Key To Understanding the Rise in Mortgage Rates

“Mortgage rates rose across all loan types this week as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached its highest point since June.”

The reason Khater mentions the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is because there has been a very strong relationship between the yield and the 30-year mortgage rate over the last five decades. Here’s a graph showing that relationship:The Main Key To Understanding the Rise in Mortgage Rates | Keeping Current MattersThe relationship has also been consistent throughout 2021 as evidenced by this graph:The Main Key To Understanding the Rise in Mortgage Rates | Keeping Current MattersThe graph also reveals the most recent jump in mortgage rates was preceded by a jump in the 10-year Treasury rate (called out by the red circles).

So, What Impacts the Yield Rate?

According to Investopedia:

“There are a number of economic factors that impact Treasury yields, such as interest rates, inflation, and economic growth.”

Since there are currently concerns about inflation and economic growth due to the pandemic, the Treasury yield spiked last week. That spike impacted mortgage rates.

What Does This Mean for You?

Khater, in the Freddie Mac release mentioned above, says:

“We expect mortgage rates to continue to rise modestly which will likely have an impact on home prices, causing them to moderate slightly after increasing over the last year.”

Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist and Director of Forecasting for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), also addresses the issue:

“Consumers shouldn’t panic. Keep in mind that even though rates will increase in the following months, these rates will still be historically low. The National Association of REALTORS forecasts the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to reach 3.5% by mid-2022.”

Bottom Line

Forecasting mortgage rates is very difficult. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, once quipped:

“You know, the fallacy of economic forecasting is don’t ever try and forecast interest rates and or, more specifically, if you’re a real estate economist mortgage rates, because you will always invariably be wrong.”

That being said, if you’re either a first-time homebuyer or a current homeowner thinking of moving into a home that better fits your current needs, keep abreast of what’s happening with mortgage rates. It may very well impact your decision.

Posted in Home Ownership
Sept. 23, 2021

If Housing Affordability Is About the Money, Don’t Forget This.

If Housing Affordability Is About the Money, Don’t Forget This.


There are many non-financial benefits of buying your own home. However, today’s headlines seem to be focusing primarily on the financial aspects of homeownership – specifically affordability. Many articles are making the claim that it’s not affordable to buy a home in today’s market, but that isn’t the case.


Today’s buyers are spending approximately 20% of their income on their monthly mortgage payments. According to The Essential Guide to Creating a Homebuying Budget from Freddie Mac, the 20% of income that purchasers are currently paying is well within the 28% guideline suggested:


“Most lenders agree that you should spend no more than 28% of your gross monthly income on a mortgage payment (including principal, interest, taxes and insurance).”


So why is there so much talk about challenges regarding affordability?


It’s Not That Homes Are Unaffordable – It’s That They’re Less Affordable.

Since home prices are rising, it’s true that homes are less affordable than they have been since the housing crash fifteen years ago. Headlines making these claims aren’t incorrect; they just don’t tell the whole story. To paint the full picture, you have to look at how today stacks up with historical data. A closer analysis of affordability going further back in time reveals that homes today are more affordable than any time from 1975 to 2005.


Despite that, the chatter about affordability is pushing some buyers to the sidelines. They don’t feel comfortable knowing someone else got a better deal a year ago.


However, Are Homes Really Less Affordable if We Consider Equity?

In a recent post, Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, offers a different take on the financial components of housing affordability. Kushi proposes we should at least consider the impact equity build-up has on the affordability equation, stating:


“For those trying to buy a home, rapid house price appreciation can be intimidating and makes the purchase more expensive. However, once the home is purchased, appreciation helps build equity in the home, and becomes a benefit rather than a cost. When accounting for the appreciation benefit in our rent versus own analysis, it was cheaper to own in every one of the top 50 markets.”


Let’s look at an example. In the above-mentioned post, Kushi examines the rent versus buy situation in Dallas, Texas. Kushi chose Dallas because home prices there sit near the median of the top 50 markets in the nation.


Kushi first calculates the monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced home with a 5% down payment and a mortgage rate of 3% (see chart below):


Kushi then takes the monthly cost and subtracts the appreciation the home had over the previous twelve months. The average house price in Dallas increased 17.5% in the second quarter of 2021 compared to last year (this is in line with the national pace). That equates to an equity benefit of approximately $3,550 each month if the pace remains the same (see chart below):



We can see the equity gained each month was greater than the monthly mortgage payment, resulting in a negative cost to own. The buyer could build their net worth by $1,830 each month – after paying their mortgage.

Kushi then compares the monthly cost of owning to the cost of renting (see chart below):


When adding equity build-up into the equation, the cost of renting is $3,140 more expensive than owning. Again, the First American analysis shows that it’s less expensive to own in each of the top 50 markets in the country when including the equity component.


Bottom Line

If you’re on the fence about whether to buy or rent right now, contact your local real estate professional to determine if the equity increase in your local market should impact your decision.


Posted in Home Ownership
Sept. 22, 2021




In 2020 and the first half of 2021, the U.S. saw 2.1 million household formations, resulting in 12.3 million household formations between 2012 and June 2021. In this time period, 7.5 million single-family homes were started, and 7 million single-family homes were completed.  

The gap between single-family home constructions and household formations grew from 3.84 million homes at the beginning of 2019 to 5.24 million homes as of June 2021.

At the five-year average rate of home completion and household formation, the gap would only widen.  

Assuming household formations continue at current 5-year average, the average rate of home completion would have to triple to close the gap in home completions and household formations in 5 to 6 years.

If instead household formations sustain the sluggishness of 2021 and home completions continue to be strong, it will only take double the rate of home completions (as assessed in 2021) to close the gap in 5-6 years.

Builders are accelerating production:

In the first six months of 2021, 565,000 homes were started, which is 57% of the total homes started in 2020.  If sustained, this will mean a 15% increase in housing starts for 2021 compared to 2020.

Home starts per 1000 households increased slightly in 2020 from 7.1 in 2019 to 7.9 in 2020, indicating acceleration. 

New Home Sales data suggests that a decreasing proportion of affordable homes are being built and sold in 2021 compared to 2018-2020.  Only 32% of new homes were sold for less than $300,000 in the first half of 2021, down from 43% in 2018.

Builders are ramping up most in the south and west:

Over 50% of home starts through June 2021 were in the south, and almost 25% in the west.

Through June 2021, 13.8% of all building permits were granted in Dallas, Houston and Austin, Texas metro areas. 

Cities such as Austin (TX), Nashville (TN), Raleigh (NC), Phoenix (AZ), Denver (CO) and Tampa (FL), are seeing an outsized proportion of housing permits. 

Smaller scenic towns such as Boise City, ID, and Provo, UT as well as beach towns across Florida are seeing significant proportions of building permits relative to their size.

Builder confidence suggests that this trend could continue. Home builder sentiment is strong and up year-on-year, though dropping from its peak in November 2020. 

The Gap Between Home Starts and Household Formations Continues to Widen

As discussed in the writeup the last time we examined the question of housing supply adequacy, 2012 to 2019 marked a period of economic expansion and prosperity. Right after the January 2020 research, the Coronavirus pandemic changed daily life worldwide. Being stuck at home led to a re-examination of home life, resulting in increased housing demand across the country. However, as housing demand ramped up, the construction industry ran into issues with material and labor scarcity, driving the cost of both inputs up and widening the already large gap between home construction and household formations. Housing demand was strong enough that these hang-ups did not stifle home sales growth, but these trends exacerbated the preexisting shortage, making the problem worse. 


Between 2019 and 2021, an additional 2.1 million households formed, resulting in a total of 12.3 million new households between 2012 and June 2021. Through 2020 and the first half of 2021, homebuilders started construction on about 1.55 million single-family homes, bringing the 2012 to 2021 housing starts total to 7.47 million homes. As combined household formations outpaced housing starts in 2020 and 2021, the gap between these metrics widened to 5.24 million fewer housing starts than household formations.


Housing shortage of 5.24 million homes between 2012 and 2021


This trend of underbuilding relative to household formation carries over to homeowner vacancy rates.  As households form and housing starts fail to keep pace, the number of vacant houses dwindle.  Homeowner vacancy dropped from 2% in 2012 to 0.9% in 2021.  Homeowner vacancy decreases from 2.0% in 2012 to 0.9% in 2021


Acceleration in Home Building Can Help Close Gap

Between 2015 and 2020, the average rate of household formation was 1.5 million households per year, while the average rate of home completion was 806,000 homes per year.  If building and household formations were to continue at this clip, the gap between these metrics would never close.  If the rate of home completions doubled to an average rate of 1.6 million home completions per year, it would still take over 20 years to close the existing gap.  The rate of home completions would have to be three times the current rate (2.4 million homes completed per year) to keep up with demand and close the existing gap within 5 – 6 years. However, if household formations and home completions continue on pace with the first half of 2021, a slightly more favorable scenario plays out.  If the year’s first-half trends continue, 2021 will see 850,000 household formations and 1,066,000 home completions.  At this accelerated rate of building and decreased rate of household formations, it would still take over 30 years to close the gap.  However, to close the gap in 5 – 6 years, it would only require the rate of building to double instead of triple, as would be necessary in the worst case scenario.


However, within the first 6 months of 2021, construction has started on 565,000 homes, which is about 57% of total housing starts for 2020, indicating home construction is accelerating slightly to catch up to demand.  Notably, if the pace of the first half of 2021 is sustained, this year will mark the first time since 2016 that home starts have outpaced household formations in a single year. Household formations are much lower than in recent years, but this trend may help housing supply begin to catch up.  However, new home sales data suggests that construction activity is not concentrated in affordable housing.  In both 2018 and 2019, 43% of new home sales were priced below $300,000.  However, in 2020, this figure dropped to 39% and through the first half of 2021, only about 32% of new homes have been sold for less than $300,000.  

Household Formations vs Home Starts

Building Permits Indicate Investment in the South and West

More than half of all housing starts in the first six months of 2021 were in the South. This trend is on track to continue as shown by the proportion of building permits granted in southern metro areas. In the first half of 2021, 13.8% of all building permits were granted in Dallas, Houston and Austin, Texas. Combined, these cities only make up 6.0% of the US population. The volume of permits relative to city size reveals that significant investment is going into growing cities such as Austin (TX), Nashville (TN), Raleigh (NC), Phoenix (AZ), Denver (CO) and Tampa (FL). The investments in real estate developments also reflect a noticeable consumer shift toward markets with higher quality of life, larger homes, strong economies and relative affordability. This trend away from coastal urban downtowns and toward suburban and mid-sized cities was also captured in our 2021 Hottest Zip Codes report.   

Growing cities see increased building permits

Interestingly, many smaller cities (<0.5% of US population) are seeing considerable investment relative to their size. Most of these smaller cities have the benefit of natural beauty, whether it be mountains (Boise City, ID, Provo, UT, Greeley, CO) or beach (many towns around Florida’s coast).

Smaller cities with access to nature see significant permitting activity

Builder Confidence Remains High

In the 2010-2021 time period, home builder sentiment climbed. In 2010, confidence was still recovering from the housing crash, but the next decade marked a period of confidence-boosting expansion. Even the disruption of the pandemic served to ultimately boost builder confidence to new all-time highs and to remain above pre-pandemic levels after the initial shock wore off. Notably, home builder sentiment fell dramatically to a Housing Market Index (HMI) value of 30 in April of 2020 as the pandemic took hold, but recovered and climbed steadily through the fall of 2020, peaking in November at an HMI of 90. In the first 6 months of 2021, sentiment came down slightly, but has leveled off with a six month HMI average of 83. Average home builder sentiment was 66 in 2019 and 70 in 2020. This indicates that in 2021, home builders are feeling positive about the market and their prospects for future business. Homebuilder sentiment is highest in the South and West, where housing starts and building permits are through the roof. In August of 2021, home builder sentiment dropped to 75 from 80 in July 2021. Though sentiment is still relatively high, this drop indicates home builder optimism is beginning to wane.  Builder sentiment becomes more positive between 2012 and 2021


Overall, the market is looking strong for homebuyers, builders and sellers alike. Low household formation in 2021 is giving builders the opportunity to catch up to demand. The pandemic served as an opportunity for reflection, pushing many homebuyers towards larger homes in lower cost cities. Southern metro areas, as well as Denver and Phoenix are seeing especially high rates of construction and permitting, indicating growth in cities that offer lower cost of living and more space.  



Household Formations (

Single-family housing starts (

Metro-level residential permits (

Metro-level population (

Home builder sentiment (HMI) (

Homeowner vacancy rate (



To arrive at yearly household formation, the increase in households between December in the previous year and the current year were calculated. This value was used as the number of household formations in the current year. Home starts, completions and permits refer to the total single-family homes metric in the Census construction data. HMI and vacancy data were pulled and displayed as stated in the data source.


To understand how long it would take to close the gap between household formations and housing starts, the assumption was made that each projected year would see the yearly average number of household formations as assessed from 2015-2020. The assumed base rate of home building was the 2015-2020 average.  Any reference to double or tripling the rate of homebuilding is referring to the 2015-2020 average rate of home building.


In order to speak to the affordability of the homes being started and completed, the Census data on new home sales was used as a proxy. For years 2018-2020, $300,000 is below the median home price.  This price was used as the upper end of affordability, considering anything less than $300,000 as ‘affordable’.  To assess affordability, the relative proportion of home sales for less than $300,000 in each year, 2018-2021, was used. 

Posted in Home Ownership
Sept. 10, 2021

Options for First-Time Homebuyers [INFOGRAPHIC]

Options for First-Time Homebuyers [INFOGRAPHIC] | Keeping Current Matters

Some Highlights

  • With a housing market this competitive, sometimes you have to think outside the box.
  • Work with your trusted real estate advisors to do things like assess your budgetexpand your search radius, look into other options, and determine your true needs.
  • If you’re having trouble finding your first home, explore your options. It’s out there!
Posted in Home Ownership
Sept. 8, 2021

Southern Oregon Market Stats Aug

Southern Oregon Market Stats

June 1st, 2021- August 31st, 2021


By Jake Rockwell

Can you believe that just 5 short years ago that homes were selling in Medford and the surrounding areas for under $200 thousand? White City specifically had a median home sales price $174,000, its now selling for $310,000 median price with an 80% increase in that short time frame of 5 years. Comparatively, in that same time frame Gold Hill & Rogue River has jumped from $180,000 to $360,000 up by 100%! Additionally, the Year to Date average of the Absorption Rate has increased to 2.53 from just 1.34 at this same time last year, which ultimately means that the lack of inventory is starting to slowly pick back up! While days on Market in Josephine county is still comparatively lower than many years past, its continuing to decrease, going from  26 CDOM (cumulative days on market) to 7 CDOM.

Key Take-Aways:

    • Average Days on Market Josephine County Urban Home Sales went from 41 in 2020 to 19 in 2021
    • Average Days on Market Jackson County Urban Home Sales went from 43 in 2020 to 18 in 2021
    • Jackson County jumped in number of sales from 694 in 2020 to 825 in 2021
    • Josephine County jumped in number of sales from 169 in 2020 to 191 in 2021

Links to Stats:


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Want an instant market valuation for you property?


Sept. 3, 2021

What Does Being in a Sellers’ Market Mean?


What Does Being in a Sellers’ Market Mean?

Whether or not you’ve been following the real estate industry lately, there’s a good chance you’ve heard we’re in a serious sellers’ market. But what does that really mean? And why are conditions today so good for people who want to list their house?

It starts with the number of houses available for sale. The latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows housing supply is still astonishingly low. Today, we have a 2.6-month supply of homes at the current sales pace. Historically, a 6-month supply is necessary for a ‘normal’ or ‘neutral’ market in which there are enough homes available for active buyers (see graph below):What Does Being in a Sellers’ Market Mean? | Keeping Current MattersWhen the supply of houses for sale is as low as it is right now, it’s much harder for buyers to find homes to purchase. That creates increased competition among purchasers which leads to more bidding wars. And if buyers know they may be entering a bidding war, they’re going to do their best to submit a very attractive offer. As this happens, home prices rise, and sellers are in the best position to negotiate deals that meet their ideal terms.

Right now, there are many buyers who are ready, willing, and able to purchase a home. Low mortgage rates and the ongoing rise in remote work have prompted buyers to think differently about where they live – and they’re taking action. If you put your house on the market while supply is still low, it will likely get a lot of attention from competitive buyers.

Bottom Line

Today’s ultimate sellers’ market holds great opportunities for homeowners ready to make a move. Listing your house now will maximize your exposure to serious buyers who will actively compete against each other to purchase it. Connect with a local real estate professional to jumpstart the selling process.

Aug. 26, 2021

What To Do with Your Vacation Home as Summer Ends


What To Do with Your Vacation Home as Summer Ends

As summer comes to a close, is it time to think about selling your vacation home? Based on recent data and expert opinions, it’s something you may want to consider. According to research from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), vacation home sales are up 57.2% year-over-year for January-April 2021.

If you’ve taken your last vacation this summer, here are reasons you should consider selling your vacation home this year.

1. Remote work continues to drive demand for vacation homes.

As the report from NAR says, based on continuously evolving work needs, there could be more interest in your second home than you think:

“In 2020, across all nine divisions, the fraction of the workforce that work from home is typically higher in the vacation home counties than in the non-vacation home counties… The opportunity to work from home could further raise the demand for vacation homes in future years.

Recent data shows we’ll likely see a sustained increase in the rate of remote work over the next five years. That means your vacation home could be highly sought after by certain buyers. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, puts it best, saying:

Vacation homes are a hot commodity at the moment . . . . With many businesses and employers still extending an option to work remotely to workers, vacation housing and second homes will remain a popular choice among buyers.”

2. Selling could allow you to upgrade your vacation spot – or even your day-to-day scenery.

When demand is high, so is buyer competition. When competition is strong, buyers will do everything they can to make their offer on your vacation home as appealing as possible. This can include things like all-cash offers and more. If you sell now, you’ll be able to benefit from high buyer competition and pick the offer with the best possible terms for you. That offer could give you the opportunity to purchase the primary residence of your dreams.

Or, if you find that you’ll continue working from home, you could consider taking up more permanent residence in your vacation home and selling your primary residence instead. While this isn’t a choice everyone can consider, it could be a great option.

No matter what the situation, you don’t have to make the decision on your own. Your trusted real estate advisor can help you determine your best option when you’re ready to sell.

Bottom Line

Buyers remain interested in vacation homes this year for a number of reasons. Now that summer is winding down, it’s time to think about taking advantage of today’s demand for vacation homes. Talk with your trusted real estate advisor if you’re ready to give your second home its day in the sun.

Posted in Home Ownership
Aug. 19, 2021

Sellers: Make Today’s Home Price Appreciation Work for You


Sellers: Make Today’s Home Price Appreciation Work for You

Home prices continue to rise as we move through the summer, and that’s good news for sellers who are looking to maximize their home’s potential. If you’re on the fence about whether to list your house now or later, the question you should really ask is: will this price appreciation last?

Here’s what three leading industry experts have to say about what lies ahead:

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors (NAR):

“At a broad level, home prices are in no danger of a decline due to tight inventory conditions, but I do expect prices to appreciate at a slower pace by the end of the year.”

Selma Hepp, Deputy Chief Economist, CoreLogic:

“The imbalance between robust demand and dismal availability of for-sale homes has led to a continual bidding over asking prices, which reached record levels in recent months . . . . Nevertheless, with more new listings and new home construction, home price acceleration that has built momentum, and continues to reach new highs, will likely slow later this summer but remain in double digits.”

George Ratiu, Chief Economist,

Many sellers are going to take advantage of higher prices. This summer is going to signal the move to the next chapter, and this will very much be the year they’re going to put their home on the market.”

What It Means for You:

The experts agree that the summer months give sellers a great opportunity to capitalize on today’s home prices. And while prices aren’t expected to depreciate, the rise in prices is forecast to moderate over the next few years. That means selling your house today could set you up for a bigger win.

Bottom Line

Listen to the experts. If you’re ready to make a move, work with a trusted real estate professional to sell your house sooner rather than later so you can take advantage of today’s home price appreciation before it moderates.

Posted in Home Ownership